Bjarnason T, Thorlindsson T
Institute for Educational Research, Reykjavik, Iceland.
Suicide Life Threat Behav. 1994 Winter;24(4):350-8.
Past suicide attempts have been found to be a major risk factor for both repeated attempts and completed suicide. The utility of this is, however, limited by the fact that the majority of all suicide attempts never come to professional attention. This paper explores the possibility of using manifest indicators to predict which individuals in a population of adolescents have attempted suicide. Using logistic regression, manifest predictors in the categories of school, leisure, peer and parent relations, consumption, and contact with suicidal behavior could identify either a quarter of the population containing three quarters of all suicide attempters or 2% of the population where two thirds of those predicted actually had attempted suicide. It is thus concluded that manifest predictors can complement psychiatric screening methods by efficiently reducing the number to be screened.
过去的自杀未遂已被发现是再次自杀未遂和自杀死亡的主要危险因素。然而，由于大多数自杀未遂事件从未引起专业关注，这一因素的效用受到了限制。本文探讨了使用明显指标来预测青少年群体中哪些人曾有过自杀未遂行为的可能性。通过逻辑回归分析，在学校、休闲、同伴和亲子关系、消费以及与自杀行为接触等类别中的明显预测因素，能够识别出占总人数四分之一但包含四分之三自杀未遂者的人群，或者占总人数2%且其中三分之二被预测者实际曾有过自杀未遂行为的人群。因此得出结论，明显预测因素可以通过有效减少筛查人数来补充精神病学筛查方法。
