Achenbach T M, Howell C T, McConaughy S H, Stanger C
Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont, Burlington 05401, USA.
J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry. 1995 Apr;34(4):488-98.
To identify 1986 and 1989 variables that significantly predicted signs of disturbance assessed in 1992.
1986 parent reports and 1989 parent, teacher, and self-reports of syndromes, competencies, family variables, and stressful experiences were tested as predictors of 1992 reports of academic problems, school behavior problems, receipt of mental health services, suicidal behavior, police contacts, substance abuse, and the sum of these six signs.
The predictors accounted for large percentages of variance in most signs and predicted fairly accurately which members of case-control samples would manifest specific signs. Overall predictive accuracy was similar for both sexes, but many predictors differed for boys versus girls. The six signs were weakly associated with each other but were strongly associated with particular syndromes.
Signs of disturbance were predictable over a 6-year period despite the diversity of a national sample. Previous manifestations of certain signs were modest predictors of the same signs. The Delinquent Behavior and Attention Problems syndromes, plus stressful experiences, predicted the most signs. Sex differences in predictors argue against generalizing findings and inferences from one sex to the other.
确定1986年和1989年的变量，这些变量能够显著预测1992年评估的行为紊乱迹象。
将1986年家长报告以及1989年家长、教师和自我报告的症状、能力、家庭变量和压力经历，作为1992年学业问题、学校行为问题、接受心理健康服务、自杀行为、与警方接触、药物滥用以及这六种迹象总和报告的预测因素进行测试。
预测因素在大多数迹象中解释了很大比例的方差，并能相当准确地预测病例对照样本中的哪些成员会表现出特定迹象。男女的总体预测准确性相似，但男孩和女孩的许多预测因素有所不同。这六种迹象彼此之间关联较弱，但与特定症状密切相关。
尽管全国样本具有多样性，但行为紊乱迹象在6年期间是可预测的。某些迹象的先前表现是相同迹象的适度预测因素。犯罪行为和注意力问题症状，加上压力经历，预测的迹象最多。预测因素中的性别差异表明，不应将研究结果和推论从一种性别推广到另一种性别。
