Three-year course of behavioral/emotional problems in a national sample of 4- to 16-year-olds: 3. Predictors of signs of disturbance.

We tested parent-reported family variables, problems, competencies, and stress as predictors of (a) academic problems, (b) school behavior problems, (c) receipt of mental health services, (d) child's need for additional help, (e) suicidal behavior, (f) police contacts, and (g) the sum of these 6 outcomes. Included in the study were 995 cases manifesting at least 1 sign of disturbance (from Outcomes a-f) and 995 matched controls from a national sample of 2,479 children assessed twice over a 3-year interval. Path analyses identified predictors that were significant across age and sex plus those specific to particular groups. The predictive models accounted for medium to large effects in Time 2 signs of disturbance. Time 2 Child Behavior Checklist scores were significantly associated with all Time 2 disturbance scores. The multiple significant risk factors associated with signs of disturbance indicated variations in pathways leading to particular signs of disturbance.