[Health status in Europe and projections to the year 2000. 1. The male population].

The life expectancy of men varies at present in the posttotalitarian central and eastern European countries round 67 years; on the territory of the former USSR it is cca 64 years, in western and northern Europe 72-75 years. Linear extrapolation of these data to 2000 indicates that at the beginning of the next century the life expectancy of men in western Europe will vary round 76 years, while in the posttotalitarian countries it will remain at the same low level. In western Europe there is a steady decline of early deaths of men due to cardiovascular diseases (ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases), diseases of the respiratory, digestive, nervous, urogenital system. The mortality caused by neoplasms, however, remains at a constant level. This is the reason why after 2000 the structure of mortality will change substantially: the cause of premature death of every other man in western Europe will be neoplasms. In the posttotalitarian part of Europe since 1970 early deaths of men due to cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms (mainly lung cancer), diseases of the digestive and nervous system and cirrhosis of the liver are rising steadily. It is probable that in this part of Europe also after 2000 the main cause of death will be cardiovascular and neoplastic diseases which together will account for 60-70% of early deaths of men and for their short life expectancy.