Werner M J, Walker L S, Greene J W
Division of Adolescent Medicine, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee 37232-3571, USA.
J Adolesc Health. 1995 Mar;16(3):191-9. doi: 10.1016/1054-139X(94)00065-M.
To evaluate the stability of expectancies about alcohol and their ability to prospectively explain drinking patterns and the occurrence of alcohol-related problems among college freshman women.
College women (n = 120) completed a standardized measure of expectations and subjective evaluations of positive and negative outcomes associated with drinking and a questionnaire assessing drinking patterns and common alcohol-related problems at both the beginning and end of the school year. Ninety percent of the students were Caucasian with a mean age of 17.9 years (SD = 0.5).
Students' positive and negative outcome expectations and their subjective evaluations at the beginning of the year were significantly correlated with drinking patterns at the end of the year (p's < .05). During the year, students at low risk for problem drinking developed stronger positive attitudes toward the effects of alcohol upon courage, became less concerned about potential behavioral impairment, and perceived less negative effects upon self-perception. High risk students showed a significant decline in their positive attitudes toward the effects of alcohol upon their sociability. Expectancies about alcohol at the beginning of the school year explained 33% of variance in subsequent drinking (F = 6.17; p < .0004) and 20% of the variance in alcohol-related problems occurring during the year (F = 3.26; p < .02). Outcome evaluation scales at the beginning of the year explained more variance in subsequent drinking and alcohol-related problems than did outcome expectation scales.
Alcohol outcome expectations and their subjective evaluations were relatively stable across the freshman year for these college women. Alcohol expectancies on entry into college explained significant amounts of variability in drinking behavior and the occurrence of alcohol-related problems during the subsequent freshman year. Students' attitudes toward perceived outcomes may be more important than the perceived likelihood of the outcomes themselves.
评估对酒精的预期的稳定性及其前瞻性解释大学一年级女生饮酒模式和酒精相关问题发生情况的能力。
大学女生（n = 120）在学年开始和结束时完成了一项关于与饮酒相关的积极和消极结果的预期及主观评价的标准化测量，以及一份评估饮酒模式和常见酒精相关问题的问卷。90%的学生为白人，平均年龄17.9岁（标准差 = 0.5）。
学生在年初的积极和消极结果预期及其主观评价与年末的饮酒模式显著相关（p值 <.05）。在这一年中，饮酒问题低风险的学生对酒精对勇气影响的积极态度增强，对潜在行为损害的担忧减少，且对自我认知的负面影响感知降低。高风险学生对酒精对其社交能力影响的积极态度显著下降。学年开始时对酒精的预期解释了后续饮酒差异的33%（F = 6.17；p <.0004）以及该年酒精相关问题差异的20%（F = 3.26；p <.02）。年初的结果评价量表比结果预期量表能解释更多后续饮酒和酒精相关问题的差异。
对于这些大学女生而言，在整个大一学年中，酒精结果预期及其主观评价相对稳定。入学时的酒精预期解释了后续大一学年饮酒行为和酒精相关问题发生情况的大量变异性。学生对感知结果的态度可能比结果本身的感知可能性更重要。
