Werner M J, Walker L S, Greene J W
Division of Adolescent Medicine, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee, USA.
J Adolesc Health. 1996 Apr;18(4):276-85. doi: 10.1016/1054-139X(95)00207-9.
Previous studies suggest that combining the CAGE questionnaire with the Perceived Benefit of Drinking Scale (PBDS), information about an adolescent's use of tobacco, and best friend's drinking pattern is a useful composite screening measure for problem drinking. The present study was undertaken to evaluate this composite screening measure prospectively as a predictor of subsequent problem drinking among late adolescents across 3 years of college.
A random sample of 452 college freshmen entered a longitudinal study of alcohol use at the beginning of their freshman year. A total of 184 (58%) completed follow-up measures of alcohol use 32 months later. Outcome measures included the quantity and frequency of alcohol use and a composite measure of specific alcohol-related problems.
CAGE scores, PBDS scores, tobacco use, and best friend's drinking patterns as reported at college entry together explained 33% of the variance in the quantity/frequency measure and 37% of the variance in the alcohol-related problems measure from the end of the junior year. These same variables as reported at the end of the junior year explained 50% of the variance in the quantity/frequency measure and 61% of the variance in the alcohol-related problems measure. The composite screening measure as reported at college entry had a sensitivity of 73%, specificity of 70%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 63%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 78% for students at high risk for problem drinking at the end of the junior year. A similar concurrent composite screening measure consisting of the same variables reported at the end of the junior year had a sensitivity of 88%, specificity of 56%, PPV of 60%, and NPV of 83% for high-risk drinkers. A total of 70-73% of students could be correctly categorized by each composite screening measure. These composite screening tests had significantly better test characteristics than the CAGE or PBDS alone.
College students' responses to the CAGE, PBDS, tobacco use, and their friends' drinking remain consistent over 3 years and correlate with concurrent and future risk for problem drinking. These variables explain significant variance in drinking and alcohol-related problems and may constitute a useful screening measure for current and future problem drinking.
先前的研究表明，将CAGE问卷与饮酒感知益处量表（PBDS）、青少年烟草使用信息以及最好朋友的饮酒模式相结合，是一种用于筛查问题饮酒的有效综合测量方法。本研究旨在前瞻性地评估这一综合筛查方法，作为预测大学三年级后期青少年在三年大学生活中后续出现问题饮酒情况的指标。
452名大学新生的随机样本在大一学年开始时进入一项酒精使用纵向研究。32个月后，共有184名（58%）学生完成了酒精使用的随访测量。结果测量包括酒精使用的量和频率以及特定酒精相关问题的综合测量。
入学时报告的CAGE分数、PBDS分数、烟草使用情况以及最好朋友的饮酒模式，共同解释了大三学年末酒精使用量/频率测量中33%的方差以及酒精相关问题测量中37%的方差。大三学年末报告的这些相同变量解释了酒精使用量/频率测量中50%的方差以及酒精相关问题测量中61%的方差。入学时报告的综合筛查方法对大三学年末有问题饮酒高风险的学生，敏感性为73%，特异性为70%，阳性预测值（PPV）为63%，阴性预测值（NPV）为78%。由大三学年末报告的相同变量组成的类似同期综合筛查方法，对高风险饮酒者的敏感性为88%，特异性为56%，PPV为60%，NPV为83%。每种综合筛查方法能够正确分类70% - 73%的学生。这些综合筛查测试的测试特征明显优于单独使用CAGE或PBDS。
大学生对CAGE、PBDS、烟草使用情况以及朋友饮酒情况的回答在三年中保持一致，并与同期及未来问题饮酒风险相关。这些变量解释了饮酒及酒精相关问题的显著方差，可能构成一种用于筛查当前及未来问题饮酒的有效测量方法。
