利物浦药物滥用患病率的估计及已知成瘾情况的空间分析。

An estimate of the prevalence of drug misuse in Liverpool and a spatial analysis of known addiction.

作者信息

Squires N F, Beeching N J, Schlecht B J, Ruben S M

机构信息

North West Regional Health Authority, Birchwood, Warrington.

出版信息

J Public Health Med. 1995 Mar;17(1):103-9.

PMID:7786555

Abstract

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence and distribution of opiate and cocaine misuse in the City of Liverpool in 1991. The databases included residents of the city using opiates or cocaine, who were known to the Drug Dependency Units or the Infectious Diseases Unit, or who were arrested for possession of drugs in 1991.

METHODS

A three-sample log-linear capture-recapture method was applied to databases containing details of drug users with City of Liverpool postcodes, to determine the prevalence of drug misuse in 1991. Linear regression analysis was performed to correlate the prevalence of known drug misuse with indices of material deprivation in each electoral ward.

RESULTS

Data on 1427 individuals were analysed, producing an estimate of the drug-using population of 2344 [95 per cent confidence interval (CI) = 1972-2716] and a period prevalence of 5.2 per 1000 [95 per cent CI = (4.5-6.0) per 1000]. In the 15-29 year age group, the prevalence of drug abuse was 16.9 per 1000 [95 per cent CI = (13.9-19.9) per 1000]. There was a negative interdependence between the police and Drug Dependency Unit databases with attenders at the Unit being 7.2 (95 per cent CI = 4.6-11.4) times less likely to be arrested for possession than non-attenders. There was a strong correlation between the distribution of known drug use and material deprivation, as measured by the Townsend index (r = 0.75; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The capture-recapture method allows the prevalence of drug misuse to be estimated and provides more meaningful information than is available from the notification system. The study suggests that people in contact with drug services are less likely to commit crimes of possession of class A drugs than those not in contact with drug services. There is a strong association between drug abuse and deprivation, and therefore the purchasing of services for drug misusers should be focused on areas of deprivation.

摘要

背景

本研究的目的是确定1991年利物浦市阿片类药物和可卡因滥用的患病率及分布情况。数据库包括该市使用阿片类药物或可卡因的居民，这些居民为药物依赖治疗机构或传染病治疗机构所知，或在1991年因持有毒品而被捕。

方法

采用三样本对数线性捕获-再捕获法，对包含利物浦市邮政编码的吸毒者详细信息的数据库进行分析，以确定1991年药物滥用的患病率。进行线性回归分析，将已知药物滥用的患病率与每个选区的物质匮乏指数相关联。

结果

对1427人的数据进行了分析，得出吸毒人群估计数为2344人[95%置信区间（CI）=1972 - 2716]，期间患病率为每1000人中有5.2人[95% CI =（4.5 - 6.0）每1000人]。在15 - 29岁年龄组中，药物滥用患病率为每1000人中有16.9人[95% CI =（13.9 - 19.9）每1000人]。警方数据库和药物依赖治疗机构数据库之间存在负相关，在该机构就诊的人因持有毒品被捕的可能性比未就诊者低7.2倍（95% CI = 4.6 - 11.4）。已知吸毒分布与物质匮乏之间存在很强的相关性，用汤森指数衡量（r = 0.75；p < 0.001）。