Biggerstaff B J, Tweedie R L, Mengersen K L
Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins 80523.
Int Arch Occup Environ Health. 1994;66(4):269-77. doi: 10.1007/BF00454366.
There are currently several classical and Bayesian methods of meta-analysis available for combining epidemiological results. We describe and compare these in a consistent framework, and apply them to published studies of the relative risk of lung cancer associated with exposure to environmental tobacco smoke in the workplace. We find that although all methods give reasonably similar combined estimates of relative risk of lung cancer associated with this exposure (none of which is significantly raised above unity, in either a frequentist or a Bayesian sense), the approximations arising from classical methods appear to be nonconservative and should be used with caution. The Bayesian methods, which account more explicitly for possible inhomogeneity in studies, give slightly lower estimates again of relative risk and wider posterior credible intervals, indicating that inference from the non-Bayesian approaches might be optimistic.
目前有几种经典和贝叶斯荟萃分析方法可用于合并流行病学结果。我们在一个一致的框架内对这些方法进行描述和比较,并将它们应用于已发表的关于工作场所接触环境烟草烟雾与肺癌相对风险的研究。我们发现,尽管所有方法对这种接触导致的肺癌相对风险给出的合并估计值相当相似(无论是在频率论还是贝叶斯意义上,这些估计值均未显著高于1),但经典方法产生的近似值似乎是非保守的,应谨慎使用。贝叶斯方法更明确地考虑了研究中可能存在的异质性,给出的相对风险估计值再次略低,后验可信区间更宽,这表明非贝叶斯方法的推断可能过于乐观。