Lee L T, Chen C J, Lee W C, Luh K T, Hsieh W C, Lin R S
Department of Family Medicine, College of Medicine, National Taiwan University, Taipei, R.O.C.
J Formos Med Assoc. 1994 Aug;93(8):657-62.
The specific aim of this study was to examine the effects of age, calendar period of death, and birth cohort in pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) mortality in Taiwan during the period 1961 to 1990. A log-linear Poisson regression model modified from the method of Osmond and Gardner was used and 79,881 deaths (58,025 males and 21,856 females) were included in the analysis. Birth cohort is the most significant predictor of pulmonary TB mortality according to the model. The earliest birth cohort from 1891 had a pulmonary TB mortality 17,327 and 6,186 times those born from 1986 for males and females, respectively. There was also a significant age effect. The youngest age group of zero to four years had a pulmonary TB mortality 7.10 and 5.87 times those for the age group of five to nine years for males and females, respectively. The oldest age group of 70 to 74 years had a risk of pulmonary TB mortality 2.89 and 1.88 times those for the five- to nine-year age groups for males and females, respectively. Parameters of the period factor showed a decreasing pulmonary TB mortality from 1961 to 1990 that was less significant than those of age or cohort. In addition to the improvement in medical measures that influenced the effect of calendar year on TB mortality, year of birth is an important determinant in the trend of TB mortality in Taiwan. The result shows that the major focus for TB mortality in Taiwan is in the age groups born between 1891 and 1921.
本研究的具体目的是检验1961年至1990年期间年龄、死亡日历时期和出生队列对台湾肺结核（TB）死亡率的影响。采用了从奥斯蒙德和加德纳方法修改而来的对数线性泊松回归模型，分析纳入了79,881例死亡病例（男性58,025例，女性21,856例）。根据该模型，出生队列是肺结核死亡率最显著的预测因素。1891年最早的出生队列男性和女性的肺结核死亡率分别是1986年出生者的17,327倍和6,186倍。年龄效应也很显著。零至四岁的最年轻年龄组男性和女性的肺结核死亡率分别是五至九岁年龄组的7.10倍和5.87倍。70至74岁的最年长年龄组男性和女性的肺结核死亡风险分别是五至九岁年龄组的2.89倍和1.88倍。时期因素的参数显示1961年至1990年肺结核死亡率呈下降趋势，但其显著性低于年龄或队列因素。除了医疗措施的改善影响历年对肺结核死亡率的作用外，出生年份是台湾肺结核死亡率趋势的一个重要决定因素。结果表明，台湾肺结核死亡率的主要关注点在于1891年至1921年出生的年龄组。
