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通信:变革加速背后的驱动力。

Communications: the driving force behind the accelerating rate of change.

作者信息

Kincaid J F

出版信息

Ann Clin Lab Sci. 1976 Jul-Aug;6(4):283-90.

PMID:786136
Abstract

The rate of change of all aspects of the life of mankind on this planet is accelerating at an ever-increasing pace. It is stated that this upheaval is directly attributable to technological changes and their interaction with social, economic and political changes. The hypothesis is advanced that this dramatically increasing rate of change is due to four unique innovations, all dealing with communications. The four are the spoken language, the written language, the printing press and the electronic computer. The accelerating rate of technological change is measured by the rate at which one hundred "technological breakthroughs" have appeared. In prehistoric times, such breakthroughs occurred tens or hundreds of thousands of years apart. Today, several appear each decade. Hope is expressed that this rapidly accelerating rate of change will enable mankind to cope with the major problems of our modern civilization. The problems specifically flagged out are population growth, human genetics, energy and pollution.

摘要

在这个星球上,人类生活各个方面的变化速度正以越来越快的步伐加速。据说,这种剧变直接归因于技术变革及其与社会、经济和政治变革的相互作用。有人提出一种假说,即这种急剧增加的变化速度是由于四项独特的创新,所有这些都与通信有关。这四项创新是口语、书面语、印刷机和电子计算机。技术变革的加速率是以一百项“技术突破”出现的速度来衡量的。在史前时代,这样的突破相隔数万年或数十万年才出现一次。如今,每十年就会出现几项。人们表示希望,这种迅速加速的变化速度将使人类能够应对现代文明的重大问题。特别指出的问题是人口增长、人类遗传学、能源和污染。

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