Ross T, McMeekin T A
Department of Agricultural Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
Int J Food Microbiol. 1994 Nov;23(3-4):241-64. doi: 10.1016/0168-1605(94)90155-4.
Predictive microbiology is based upon the premise that the responses of populations of microorganisms to environmental factors are reproducible, and that by considering environments in terms of identifiable dominating constraints it is possible, from past observations, to predict the responses of those microorganisms. Proponents claim that predictive microbiology offers many benefits to the practice of food microbiology, and there is growing interest internationally. This review considers the origins, benefits and approaches to predictive microbiology and critically considers limitations and potential solutions. It is suggested that the traditional delineation between kinetic and probabilistic models is artificial, and that the two approaches represent the opposite ends of a spectrum of modelling needs. It is concluded: that despite the complexity of many food systems predictive modelling can be successfully applied; that strategies based on predictive models can simplify problems and allow useful predictions and analyses to be made; that the full potential of the technique has not yet been realised; and that "predictive microbiology" may be seen as providing a rational framework for understanding the microbial ecology of food.
微生物群体对环境因素的反应是可重复的，并且通过根据可识别的主要限制因素来考量环境，从过去的观察结果出发，就有可能预测这些微生物的反应。其支持者称，预测微生物学给食品微生物学实践带来诸多益处，并且在国际上受到越来越多的关注。本综述探讨了预测微生物学的起源、益处和方法，并批判性地考量了其局限性和潜在解决方案。有人认为，动力学模型和概率模型之间的传统划分是人为的，这两种方法代表了一系列建模需求的两端。得出的结论是：尽管许多食品系统很复杂，但预测建模仍可成功应用；基于预测模型的策略可以简化问题，并进行有用的预测和分析；该技术的全部潜力尚未实现；“预测微生物学”可被视为为理解食品微生物生态学提供了一个合理的框架。
