McClure P J, Blackburn C W, Cole M B, Curtis P S, Jones J E, Legan J D, Ogden I D, Peck M W, Roberts T A, Sutherland J P
Unilever Research Laboratory, Sharnbrook, UK.
Int J Food Microbiol. 1994 Nov;23(3-4):265-75. doi: 10.1016/0168-1605(94)90156-2.
Techniques for the development of mathematical models in the area of predictive microbiology have greatly improved recently, allowing better and more accurate descriptions of microbial responses to particular environmental conditions, thus enabling predictions of those responses to be made with greater confidence. Recognising the potential value of applying these techniques in the food industry, the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF) initiated a nationally coordinated five-year programme of research into the growth and survival of microorganisms in foods, with the aim of developing a computerised Predictive Microbiology Database in the UK. This initiative has resulted in the systematic generation of data, through protocols which ensure consistency of methodology, so that data in the database are truly comparable and compatible, and lead to reliable predictive models. The approaches taken by scientists involved in this programme are described and the various stages in the development of mathematical models summarized. It is hoped that this initiative and others being developed in the USA, Australia, Canada and other countries, will encourage a more integrated approach to food safety which will influence all stages of food production and, eventually, result in the development of an International Predictive Microbiology Database.
近年来，预测微生物学领域数学模型的开发技术有了很大改进，能够更好、更准确地描述微生物对特定环境条件的反应，从而使人们能够更有信心地预测这些反应。认识到将这些技术应用于食品工业的潜在价值，农业、渔业和食品部（MAFF）启动了一项全国协调的为期五年的研究计划，研究食品中微生物的生长和存活情况，目的是在英国建立一个计算机化的预测微生物学数据库。该计划通过确保方法一致性的方案，系统地生成了数据，使数据库中的数据具有真正的可比性和兼容性，并产生了可靠的预测模型。文中描述了参与该计划的科学家所采用的方法，并总结了数学模型开发的各个阶段。希望这一计划以及美国、澳大利亚、加拿大和其他国家正在开展的其他计划，将鼓励采取一种更加综合的食品安全方法，这种方法将影响食品生产的各个阶段，并最终促成一个国际预测微生物学数据库的建立。
