Villeneuve P J, Mao Y
Bureau of Chronic Disease Epidemiology, Tunney's Pasture, Ottawa, Ontario.
Can J Public Health. 1994 Nov-Dec;85(6):385-8.
Life table methodology was used to estimate the probability of developing lung cancer by smoking status. Lifetime risks of developing lung cancer were estimated for six hypothetical cohorts (males, females, male current smokers, male never smokers, female current smokers, and female never smokers). Estimates of smoking mortality and incidence rates were calculated based on Canadian rates observed over the period 1987 to 1989. It was found that 172/1,000 of male current smokers will eventually develop lung cancer; the similar probability among female current smokers was 116/1,000. For those who never smoked on a regular basis the lifetime risk was substantially reduced. Only 13/1,000 males and 14/1,000 females in this category will develop lung cancer. When smoking status is not adjusted for, the lifetime risk of developing lung cancer is approximately 96/1,000 and 43/1,000 for males and females respectively.
生命表方法用于按吸烟状况估计患肺癌的概率。对六个假设队列（男性、女性、男性当前吸烟者、男性从不吸烟者、女性当前吸烟者和女性从不吸烟者）的肺癌终生风险进行了估计。吸烟死亡率和发病率的估计值是根据1987年至1989年期间加拿大观察到的发病率计算得出的。结果发现，每1000名男性当前吸烟者中有172人最终会患肺癌；女性当前吸烟者中的类似概率为每1000人中有116人。对于那些从不经常吸烟的人来说，终生风险大幅降低。这一类别中每1000名男性和女性中分别只有13人和14人会患肺癌。在不考虑吸烟状况的情况下，男性和女性患肺癌的终生风险分别约为每1000人中有96人和43人。
