Xu X, Laird N, Dockery D W, Schouten J P, Rijcken B, Weiss S T
Department of Environmental Health, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA.
Am J Epidemiol. 1995 Mar 15;141(6):554-66. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a117471.
This paper proposes the use of two-factor models (age-period and age-cohort models) to estimate age, period, and cohort effects on pulmonary function by using the data collected in a 24-year longitudinal study in the Netherlands from 1965 to 1990. The analysis included 18,363 pulmonary function measurements on 6,148 subjects aged 20-54 years at the initial visit. The subjects were grouped into four birth cohorts (before 1923, 1923-1934, 1935-1946, and after 1946) and four survey periods (1965-1972, 1973-1978, 1979-1984, and 1985-1990). In the age-cohort model, the decrement in forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) associated with a yearly increase in age was 28.3 +/- 3.7 ml/year for a man 176 cm tall and 16.0 +/- 1.9 ml/year for a woman 163 cm tall. The estimated acceleration of decline with aging was significant for both men (beta = -0.212; standard error = 0.079 ml) and women (beta = -0.346; standard error = 0.058 ml). Compared with that of the cohort born before 1923, the average level of FEV1 was estimated to increase by 156, 277, and 379 ml, respectively, for the three younger cohorts in men (p = 0.01) and by 133, 213, and 328 ml for the three younger cohorts in women (p < 0.01). In the age-period model, the estimated linear age effect on FEV1 was 36.2 +/- 4.2 ml/year for a man and 30.5 +/- 2.3 ml/year for a woman. The age quadratic term was significant for women, but not for men. Average FEV1 was estimated to be increased by 141, 169, and 250 ml, respectively, for the periods 1973-1978, 1979-1984, and 1985-1990 in men and by 131, 138, and 219 ml in women. These period effects were significant for both men and women. In summary, this study applied the two-factor models to estimate cross-sectional and longitudinal effects of aging on FEV1 and demonstrated significant period and cohort effects, which could be attributed in part to changes in air pollutants, respiratory infections, vaccinations, types of cigarettes, diet, and lifestyles over time.
本文提议使用双因素模型（年龄-时期模型和年龄-队列模型），通过运用1965年至1990年在荷兰进行的一项为期24年的纵向研究中收集的数据，来估计年龄、时期和队列对肺功能的影响。该分析纳入了6148名初次就诊时年龄在20至54岁之间的受试者的18363次肺功能测量数据。受试者被分为四个出生队列（1923年以前、1923 - 1934年、1935 - 1946年以及1946年以后）和四个调查时期（1965 - 1972年、1973 - 1978年、1979 - 1984年以及1985 - 1990年）。在年龄-队列模型中，对于身高176厘米的男性，一秒用力呼气量（FEV1）随年龄每年增加的下降幅度为28.3±3.7毫升/年，对于身高163厘米的女性为16.0±1.9毫升/年。估计的随年龄增长的下降加速在男性（β = -0.212；标准误差 = 0.079毫升）和女性（β = -0.346；标准误差 = 0.058毫升）中均具有显著性。与1923年以前出生的队列相比，男性中三个较年轻队列的FEV1平均水平估计分别增加了156、277和379毫升（p = 0.01），女性中三个较年轻队列分别增加了133、213和328毫升（p < ）。在年龄-时期模型中，估计的FEV1的线性年龄效应对于男性为36.2±4.2毫升/年，对于女性为30.5±2.3毫升/年。年龄二次项对女性具有显著性，但对男性不显著。在男性中，1973 - 1978年、1979 - 1984年以及1985 - 1990年期间的FEV1平均水平估计分别增加了141、169和250毫升，在女性中分别增加了131、138和219毫升。这些时期效应在男性和女性中均具有显著性。总之，本研究应用双因素模型来估计衰老对FEV1的横断面和纵向影响，并证明了显著的时期和队列效应，这部分可归因于随时间推移空气污染物、呼吸道感染、疫苗接种、香烟类型、饮食和生活方式的变化。
