Evans A W
Centre for Transport Studies, University College London, U.K.
Accid Anal Prev. 1994 Aug;26(4):411-28. doi: 10.1016/0001-4575(94)90033-7.
This paper discusses three approaches to the evaluation of transport safety measures--labelled cost-benefit analysis, industrial risk assessment and the elimination of all avoidable accidents--and the institutional settings in which each is dominant. This paper considers the application of these approaches primarily to road and rail safety measures in Great Britain. It is suggested that the elimination of all avoidable accidents should be rejected because of its large and open-ended resource requirement, but it is acknowledged that this is difficult because it implies the acceptance of avoidable accidents on public transport systems. The paper suggests a framework drawing on the other two approaches, in which cost-benefit analysis is combined with a limit on the tolerable risks to individuals.
本文讨论了评估运输安全措施的三种方法——分别称为成本效益分析、行业风险评估以及消除所有可避免事故——以及每种方法占主导地位的制度环境。本文主要考虑这些方法在英国道路和铁路安全措施中的应用。有人认为,消除所有可避免事故的方法应被摒弃,因为其资源需求巨大且无明确界限,但也承认这样做很困难,因为这意味着要接受公共交通系统中存在可避免事故。本文提出了一个借鉴另外两种方法的框架,即将成本效益分析与对个人可容忍风险的限制相结合。