Powell K E, Blair S N
National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333.
Med Sci Sports Exerc. 1994 Jul;26(7):851-6.
Quantitative estimates indicate that sedentary living is responsible for about one-third of deaths due to coronary heart disease, colon cancer, and diabetes--three diseases for which physical inactivity is an established causal factor. Presumably, if everyone were highly active the death rate from these three disease would be only two-thirds of the current rate. Not everyone will become highly active, however. Assuming smaller increases in physical activity practices, mortality from these three conditions combined could be reduced by as much as 5-6%, or 30,000-35,000 deaths per year. Overall mortality in the United States might be reduced about 1-1.5%. The greatest gains would accrue from strategies that encourage those who report no leisure-time physical activity to do some and that encourage those who are irregularly active to participate in 30 or more minutes of light to moderate activity for 5 or more d.wk-1. Mortality is only one aspect of public health burdens that would be reduced by greater participation in regular physical activity. Quality of life, which we have not attempted to quantify, would also improve.
定量估计表明，久坐不动的生活方式导致了约三分之一因冠心病、结肠癌和糖尿病造成的死亡——身体缺乏活动是这三种疾病已确定的致病因素。据推测，如果每个人都积极运动，这三种疾病的死亡率将仅为当前死亡率的三分之二。然而，并非每个人都会变得积极运动。假设体育活动的增加幅度较小，这三种疾病合并导致的死亡率最多可降低5% - 6%，即每年减少30,000 - 35,000例死亡。美国的总体死亡率可能会降低约1% - 1.5%。最大的收益将来自那些鼓励报告无休闲体育活动的人进行一些活动，以及鼓励那些不定期运动的人每周5天或更多天数参与30分钟或更长时间轻度至中度活动的策略。死亡率只是通过更多参与定期体育活动可减轻的公共卫生负担的一个方面。我们尚未尝试量化的生活质量也会得到改善。
