Use of exercise test parameters to predict presence and duration of ambulatory ischemia in patients with coronary artery disease.

Myocardial ischemia is an indicator of adverse prognosis. In patients with stable angina and positive exercise tests, prolonged cumulative ischemia on ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring identifies a high-risk group with severe coronary artery disease and poor survival. To determine whether features of the exercise test can accurately (1) predict the occurrence of ambulatory ischemia, and (2) classify patients into subgroups at varying levels of risk for ambulatory ischemia, we studied 48 patients with a history of angina and documented coronary disease who underwent the standard Bruce protocol and ambulatory monitoring. All patients had a positive exercise treadmill test, and 26 had ischemia on Holter monitoring (total of 2,922 minutes, 173 episodes, 94% with silent ischemia). The remaining 22 patients did not have ischemia. The exercise test parameters showing significant differences between the 2 groups were (1) time to > or = 1 mm ST-segment depression (p < 0.0003), (2) maximal ST-segment depression (p < 0.004), and (3) exercise capacity (p < 0.037). These data were used to develop a model for predicting the presence and the severity of ambulatory ischemia. Time to onset of > or = 1 mm ST-segment depression and maximal ST-segment depression on exercise treadmill testing can be used to determine the likelihood of mild (1 to 5 episodes or lasting < or = 60 minutes) or severe prolonged (> 5 episodes or lasting > 60 minutes) ambulatory ischemia. Patients with a very high or very low probability of ischemia on Holter monitoring can be identified by certain exercise test parameters and may not need to undergo monitoring.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)