Marschner I C, Newstead S V, Becker N G
Department of Statistics, LaTrobe University, Bundoora VIC, Australia.
Stat Med. 1994 Sep 30;13(18):1865-79. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780131808.
Back-projection of AIDS incidence data is useful for estimating characteristics of the HIV epidemic curve and forms a basis for projections of the AIDS epidemic curve. Its application to subgroups of the population is limited by its imprecision for groups with a small number of cases. Back-projection can be made more precise by pooling data from different groups and linking their HIV infection intensities by a model. Here we propose a method based on proportional infection intensities and study its performance with simulations and applications to AIDS in different States of Australia and haemophiliacs in the U.S.A. This method of simultaneous back-projection is shown to reduce substantially the width of confidence intervals for HIV infection intensities and for total numbers infected.
艾滋病发病率数据的反向推算对于估计艾滋病毒流行曲线的特征很有用，并且构成了艾滋病流行曲线预测的基础。它在人群亚组中的应用受到其对病例数较少的组不精确性的限制。通过汇总来自不同组的数据并通过模型将它们的艾滋病毒感染强度联系起来，可以使反向推算更精确。在这里，我们提出一种基于成比例感染强度的方法，并通过模拟以及应用于澳大利亚不同州的艾滋病情况和美国血友病患者的情况来研究其性能。结果表明，这种同时反向推算的方法可大幅减小艾滋病毒感染强度和总感染人数置信区间的宽度。
