Jedrychowski W, Maugeri U, Gomola K, Tobiasz-Adamczyk B
Dept of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Collegium Medicum, Jagiellonian University, Cracow, Poland.
Monaldi Arch Chest Dis. 1994 Sep;49(4):293-7.
During a population survey in 1986/1987 among community-dwelling elderly in Cracow, aged 65 yrs and over, measurements of ventilatory lung function were carried out on 698 males and 1,211 females. The main objective of the study was to assess the importance of forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) as a predictor of survival experienced in this population group over a 6 year follow-up, in comparison with that of sociodemographic variables, smoking habit, chronic respiratory symptoms, hypertension, obesity and self-assessment of health. Statistical analysis of the relationship between mortality and chosen predictors has been performed with Cox proportional hazards statistical model. It was found that in addition to age, the FEV1 level was the most relevant and independent of age survival predictor among the elderly. In males, a reduction of FEV1 by 100 ml after allowing for age, showed a significantly higher risk of dying by 4%, (relative risk (RR) = 1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.06), and in females by 5% (RR = 1.05; 95% CI 1.05-1.09). Male current or ex-smokers displayed a higher mortality risk due to reduction of FEV1 (RR = 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.09) compared to lifetime nonsmokers (RR = 1.04; 95% CI 1.00-1.07); the corresponding RR values in women were 1.12 (95% CI 1.02-1.23) and 1.04 (95% CI 1.00-1.08), respectively. However, the differences found between the smokers and nonsmokers were not significant in either gender group. Other potential predictors considered, such as education, chronic respiratory symptoms, hypertension, self-assessment of health, or obesity, appeared to have been irrelevant in the multivariate analysis.
1986年至1987年期间，在克拉科夫对65岁及以上的社区老年居民进行了一项人口调查，对698名男性和1211名女性进行了通气肺功能测量。该研究的主要目的是评估一秒用力呼气量（FEV1）作为该人群6年随访期间生存预测指标的重要性，并与社会人口统计学变量、吸烟习惯、慢性呼吸道症状、高血压、肥胖和健康自我评估进行比较。采用Cox比例风险统计模型对死亡率与所选预测指标之间的关系进行了统计分析。结果发现，除年龄外，FEV1水平是老年人中与年龄无关的最相关且独立的生存预测指标。在男性中，校正年龄后FEV1每降低100 ml，死亡风险显著升高4%（相对风险（RR）=1.04；95%置信区间（CI）1.01 - 1.06），在女性中升高5%（RR = 1.05；95%CI 1.05 - 1.09）。与终生不吸烟者（RR = 1.04；95%CI 1.00 - 1.07）相比，男性当前吸烟者或既往吸烟者因FEV1降低而显示出更高的死亡风险（RR = 1.05；95%CI 1.01 - 1.09）；女性相应的RR值分别为1.12（95%CI 1.02 - 1.23）和1.04（95%CI 1.00 - 1.08）。然而，在任一性别组中，吸烟者与不吸烟者之间的差异均不显著。其他考虑的潜在预测指标，如教育程度、慢性呼吸道症状、高血压、健康自我评估或肥胖，在多变量分析中似乎无关紧要。
