Cristea A, Strauss I
Stefan S. Nicolau Intitute of Virology, Bucharest, Romania.
Rev Roum Virol. 1993 Jan-Jun;44(1-2):21-47.
The individuals are distributed in 9 risk groups (adults and children), in which an HIV transmission way is predominant. Taking into account a simplified graph of the HIV infection evolution, kinetic equations for the number of individuals from each risk group--situated in various stages of HIV infection--are written. The approximative solutions of these equations give us: the characteristic exponents of the temporal evolutions of the main and secondary local epidemics; the ratios Ci/Bi and Di/Bi of asymptomatically contaminated and dead (as consequence of AIDS) versus symptomatically contaminated; the onset of local epidemics in various risk groups; the relative amplitude of the secondary local epidemics versus the main local ones.
这些个体分布在9个风险组（成人和儿童）中，每个风险组都有一种主要的HIV传播方式。考虑到HIV感染演变的简化图表，针对处于HIV感染不同阶段的每个风险组中的个体数量，写出了动力学方程。这些方程的近似解为我们提供了：主要和次要局部流行的时间演变的特征指数；无症状感染与有症状感染的情况下，无症状感染者和因艾滋病死亡者（作为艾滋病的后果）与有症状感染者的比例Ci/Bi和Di/Bi；不同风险组中局部流行的起始；次要局部流行相对于主要局部流行的相对幅度。
