The determinants of hospital utilisation: implications for resource allocation in England.

Since 1976 various attempts have been made to ensure that NHS resources available for hospital and related services in England are allocated in proportion to the health care needs of different areas. The current method is based on analyses of the links between observed patterns of in-patient utilization and the characteristics of the populations of small areas. There are a number of practical difficulties with this approach, however, and so the search continues for new analytical techniques. The purpose of this paper is to explore how household survey data about 12,729 English adults could be used to inform resource allocation decisions. Health care need indicators can be developed based on Census information and odds ratios derived from logistic regression analyses of the relationships between hospital utilization, health status, socio-demographic characteristics and area indicators of supply. The results suggest that health status is the most important determinant of hospital utilization, although demographic and socio-economic factors also have some influence. In addition to the personal characteristics of individual respondents, area correlates of health care supply are also positively associated with reported utilization. The final part of the paper illustrates how weighted population estimates might be calculated on the basis of empirically-derived indicators of health care need.