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[天气对大城市发病率动态的影响。对慕尼黑人口的一项调查]

[Effect of the weather on morbidity dynamics in a large city. An investigation on the population of Munich].

作者信息

Posse P

出版信息

MMW Munch Med Wochenschr. 1975 Mar 14;117(11):425-30.

PMID:804619
Abstract

The dependence on the weather on the nightly morbidity figures can be demonstrated in a total of 10,200 patients who have used the Munich Emergency Medical Service within 3 months. No prognostic inferences emerge which could be useful in practice, because the effect of the weather is at first almost completely masked by the effect of the weekly rhythm and trend, and only a retrospective analysis over a longer period can make its substantiation possible. Using the Tölzer Weather Phase Schemes, a significant increase in the morbidity figures can be demonstrated for the passage of fronts, inversion positions and the development of warm damp air conditions near the ground. An effect on the number of notifications of illness on meteorologically perfectly defined foehn days is not demonstrable. Only an indifferent effect on the general symptomatology can be attributed to the weather; there is no statistically significant evidence of a specific effect on a single clinical picture.

摘要

对3个月内使用慕尼黑紧急医疗服务的总计10200名患者的夜间发病率数据进行分析,可以证明发病率对天气的依赖性。由于天气的影响起初几乎完全被每周节律和趋势的影响所掩盖,所以没有出现可在实际中有用的预后推断,只有对较长时期进行回顾性分析才能证实其影响。使用特尔泽天气阶段方案,可以证明锋面过境、逆温位置以及地面附近暖湿空气条件的发展会使发病率显著增加。在气象条件完美界定的焚风日,天气对疾病报告数量没有影响。天气对总体症状学只有不明显的影响;没有统计学上显著的证据表明天气对单一临床症状有特定影响。

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