Mauldin W P, Ross J A
Research Division, Population Council, New York.
Stud Fam Plann. 1994 Mar-Apr;25(2):77-95.
What is the likelihood that each of the 37 developing countries with populations of 15 million or more in 1990 will reach replacement fertility by the year 2015? These countries have a combined population of 3.9 billion, 91 percent of the population of all developing countries. For this article, a composite index was used as the basis for predicting future levels of total fertility. The index was constructed from socioeconomic variables (life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rates, percent adult literacy, ratio of children enrolled in primary or secondary school, percent of the labor force in nonagricultural occupations, gross national product per capita, and percent of the population living in urban areas), total fertility rates for the years 1985-90, total fertility rate decline from 1960-65 to 1985-90, family planning program effort scores in 1989, and the level of contraceptive prevalence in 1990. Eight countries are classified as certain to reach replacement fertility by 2015, and an additional thirteen probably will also. Five countries are classified as possibly reaching replacement fertility, and eleven as unlikely to do so.
1990年人口在1500万及以上的37个发展中国家，到2015年每个国家达到生育更替水平的可能性有多大？这些国家的总人口为39亿，占所有发展中国家人口的91%。在本文中，一个综合指数被用作预测未来总和生育率水平的基础。该指数由社会经济变量（出生时预期寿命、婴儿死亡率、成人识字率、中小学入学儿童比例、非农业职业劳动力比例、人均国民生产总值以及城市人口比例）、1985 - 1990年的总和生育率、1960 - 1965年到1985 - 1990年的总和生育率下降幅度、1989年计划生育项目努力得分以及1990年避孕普及率构建而成。八个国家被归类为肯定会在2015年达到生育更替水平，另外还有十三个国家可能也会。五个国家被归类为有可能达到生育更替水平，十一个国家则不太可能达到。
