猪传染性胃肠炎的检测与动态数学模型
A mathematical model of detection and dynamics of porcine transmissible gastroenteritis.
作者信息
Hone J
机构信息
Bureau of Resource Sciences, Department of Primary Industries and Energy, Canberra, Australia.
出版信息
Epidemiol Infect. 1994 Aug;113(1):187-97. doi: 10.1017/s0950268800051608.
Transmissible gastroenteritis (TGE) is a viral disease causing dehydration, diarrhoea and death in pigs. The disease is widespread in pig-producing areas of the world but does not occur in Australia. A mathematical model of TGE spread within a pig herd is proposed and calibrated by reference to published data. The model is then applied to two situations of special interest; first to estimate the delay before detection of TGE (6 to over 30 days) when infection is first introduced into a herd of domestic or feral pigs, and second the effect of the disease in a population of feral pigs (could become endemic if transmission is high).
传染性胃肠炎（TGE）是一种导致猪脱水、腹泻和死亡的病毒性疾病。该疾病在世界养猪地区广泛存在，但在澳大利亚不存在。本文提出了一种TGE在猪群中传播的数学模型，并参考已发表的数据进行了校准。然后将该模型应用于两种特别感兴趣的情况：一是估计首次将感染引入家猪或野猪群时检测到TGE之前的延迟时间（6天至超过30天），二是该疾病在野猪种群中的影响（如果传播率高可能会成为地方病）。
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