A risk-assessment model for toxic exposure of small mammalian carnivores to cadmium in contaminated natural environments.

A model is presented to assess the risk of cadmium toxicity in mammalian wildlife in contaminated environments. The target-organ load was used as a hazard indicator and animals were considered to be at risk when a critical value, i.e. the lowest-observed-adverse-effect level (LOAEL), was attained or exceeded. The model was developed for Sorex araneus, a small mammalian predator with a high potential of attaining the critical target-organ load. Model parameter values were estimated from both explicit analysis of original field data and from theoretical considerations. A submodel was derived from linear regression of data concerning 36 field sites to predict the bioconcentration of cadmium in earthworms, an important food item of small mammalian carnivores. In addition to soil cadmium concentration several soil factors affecting cadmium bioavailability were included in the submodel. A second submodel was developed to predict target-organ load from a non-linear age-dependent regression of data on 63 predators from two different field sites. A separate theoretical model was constructed for the prediction of target-organ load as a function of pollutant ingestion, assimilation rates, and internal partitioning. The risk of cadmium exposure was assessed by estimating the EC50 value, the environmental effect concentration of a toxic substance in soil at which 50% of an adult population of predators would attain a target-organ load equal to or higher than the LOAEL. The model allows one to establish availability-differentiated soil quality standards with regard to cadmium pollution in natural environments. It predicts an exponential increase of the risk of hazardous exposure of terrestrial wildlife in areas sensitive to increasing levels of soil acidification ('chemical time bomb effect').