Coe R M, Romeis J C, Miller D K, Wolinsky F D, Virgo K S
Department of Community and Family Medicine, Saint Louis University School of Medicine, MO 63104.
J Community Health. 1993 Dec;18(6):327-34. doi: 10.1007/BF01323964.
The purpose of this study was to identify predictors of survival over five years in a sample of 377 elderly (age 55+) chronically ill men. Subjects were selected at baseline from consecutive appointments at a geriatric clinic and given extensive medical and psychosocial assessment. Five years later, subjects who could be located were interviewed by telephone. Interviews were completed with 194 (51.4%) subjects, 90 others were confirmed as deceased, 29 subjects could not be interviewed, and 64 more were not located although VA records did not show that any were deceased. The predictor variable of interest was the Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), a 16 item index which measures nutritional dimensions of health status. Other variables included functional health status [Activities of Daily Living (ADL), Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL)], mental health status [Mini-Mental Status Exam (MMSE), morale], health habits (smoking, alcohol use and exercise), use of health services (physician visits, emergency room (ER) visits, hospital stays), and demographic factors (age, income, marital status and living arrangements). Proportional hazard models showed that the variables with statistically significant direct effects on survival time were younger age, higher functional health status on IADL, non-smoking, moderate alcohol use, and perception of adequate income. Nutritional status was indirectly associated with survival.
本研究的目的是确定377名老年(55岁及以上)慢性病男性样本中五年生存率的预测因素。研究对象在基线时从一家老年诊所的连续预约患者中选取,并接受了全面的医学和社会心理评估。五年后,对能够联系到的研究对象进行电话访谈。共完成了194名(51.4%)研究对象的访谈,另外90人被确认死亡,29名研究对象无法接受访谈,尽管退伍军人事务部记录未显示有任何人死亡,但仍有64人未被找到。感兴趣的预测变量是营养风险指数(NRI),这是一个包含16个项目的指数,用于衡量健康状况的营养维度。其他变量包括功能健康状况[日常生活活动能力(ADL)、工具性日常生活活动能力(IADL)]、心理健康状况[简易精神状态检查表(MMSE)、士气]、健康习惯(吸烟、饮酒和锻炼)、医疗服务使用情况(看医生、急诊室就诊、住院)以及人口统计学因素(年龄、收入、婚姻状况和生活安排)。比例风险模型显示,对生存时间有统计学显著直接影响的变量包括年龄较小、IADL功能健康状况较高、不吸烟、适度饮酒以及认为收入充足。营养状况与生存存在间接关联。