Kirchner G
University of Bremen, Department of Physics/FB 1, F.R.G.
Health Phys. 1994 Jun;66(6):653-65. doi: 10.1097/00004032-199406000-00005.
More than 150 data sets giving time-dependent concentrations of 131I and 137Cs in feed and milk of cows after the Chernobyl accident are evaluated using a minimal compartmental modeling approach. Transfer of cesium via the grass-cow-milk pathway is adequately described by a three-compartmental model. No unique model results for 131I, as a compartment with slow secretion of 131I into milk, are identified for some datasets only. Frequency distributions of weathering half-lives on grass and of equilibrium feed-to-milk transfer coefficients are approximately lognormal. Mean values of weathering half-lives on plants are 9.1 +/- 0.6 d for iodine and 11.1 +/- 0.8 d for cesium, in good agreement with means established from experiments performed before 1986. Mean values of equilibrium feed-to-milk transfer coefficients are 3.4 +/- 0.4 10(-3) d L-1 for 131I and 5.4 +/- 0.5 10(-3) d L-1 for 137 Cs. Both are lower than means calculated from the pre-Chernobyl data base. Plausible explanations of the differences include (1) reduced availability of fallout compared to soluble tracer; (2) underestimation of post-Chernobyl transfer coefficients by some experiments concluded too early to record slow transport processes; and (3) reduced transfer of 131I compared to long-lived iodine isotopes due to decay during fixation in the thyroid. Feed-to-milk transfer of 131I is related to milk yield, but no influence of milk yield and type of feed on transfer is apparent for cesium.
采用最小房室建模方法对150多个数据集进行了评估,这些数据集给出了切尔诺贝利事故后奶牛饲料和牛奶中131I和137Cs随时间变化的浓度。铯通过草-牛-奶途径的转移可用三室模型充分描述。对于某些数据集,仅识别出一个131I的独特模型结果,即一个向牛奶中缓慢分泌131I的房室。草上风化半衰期和饲料-牛奶平衡转移系数的频率分布近似对数正态分布。植物上碘的风化半衰期平均值为9.1±0.6天,铯为11.1±0.8天,与1986年以前进行的实验确定的平均值高度一致。131I的饲料-牛奶平衡转移系数平均值为3.4±0.4×10-3 d L-1,137Cs为5.4±0.5×10-3 d L-1。两者均低于根据切尔诺贝利事故前数据库计算的平均值。差异的合理原因包括:(1)与可溶性示踪剂相比,沉降物的可用性降低;(2)一些过早结束的实验低估了切尔诺贝利事故后的转移系数,无法记录缓慢的运输过程;(3)由于在甲状腺中固定期间的衰变,与长寿命碘同位素相比,131I的转移减少。131I的饲料-牛奶转移与产奶量有关,但产奶量和饲料类型对铯的转移没有明显影响。