The effect on future physician requirements of an HMO policy after national health insurance.

The questions examined in this paper are: What effect will the Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) have on future physician manpower? What is the likelihood of there being a substantial movement of medical practice to the HMO form? Answers indicate that national health insurance will produce a more regulated and constrained resource allocated to health services and, hence, the demonstrated efficiencies of the HMO form will have strong appeal. The reduced physician manpower use of this type of organization is described. The result of these interactions will probably be a substantial reduction in the ratio of physicians needed 20 years from now.