Surtees P G, Barkley C
MRC Biostatistics Unit, University Forvie Site, Cambridge.
Br J Psychiatry. 1994 Mar;164(3):327-41. doi: 10.1192/bjp.164.3.327.
During 1976, 80 patients with a primary depressive illness were selected from a consecutive series of referrals to the Royal Edinburgh Hospital for a short-term follow-up study. This paper concerns the 12-year longitudinal assessment of the survivors. During the follow-up, mortality risk for the sample was almost doubled. Of the series, 35% had experienced a recurrence within 2 years of the initial interview, and just over 60% within the entire study time of 12 years. The risk of recurrence was enhanced for those aged over 45 years at index, for those with a history of depressive disorder and for those who had not engaged in parasuicidal behaviour during the index episode. The observed effect of previous episodes was largely accounted for by age. The chance of recurrence was not affected by whether the treatment of the index episode included ECT, or by whether diagnosis was 'endogenous' or 'neurotic'. Application of the Lee-Murray outcome criteria showed that about one-third of the Edinburgh series experienced a very poor outcome. Results are presented concerning the prediction of long-term outcome as represented by the Depression Outcome Scale (DOS), a measure specially constructed for this study.
1976年期间，从连续转诊至爱丁堡皇家医院的患者中选取了80例原发性抑郁症患者进行短期随访研究。本文关注的是幸存者的12年纵向评估。在随访期间，样本的死亡风险几乎增加了一倍。在该系列中，35%的患者在初次访谈后的2年内复发，在整个12年的研究期间，复发率略高于60%。首发时年龄超过45岁的患者、有抑郁症病史的患者以及在首发发作期间未出现准自杀行为的患者复发风险更高。既往发作的观察效应在很大程度上由年龄所致。复发几率不受首发发作的治疗是否包括电休克治疗的影响，也不受诊断为“内源性”或“神经症性”的影响。应用Lee-Murray结局标准显示，爱丁堡系列中约三分之一的患者结局非常差。本文给出了以抑郁结局量表（DOS）为代表的长期结局预测结果，该量表是专门为这项研究构建的。
