Liu S F, Shen Q, Dawsey S M, Wang G Q, Nieberg R K, Wang Z Y, Weiner M, Zhou B, Cao J, Yu Y
Cancer Institute, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing.
Int J Cancer. 1994 Jun 15;57(6):775-80. doi: 10.1002/ijc.2910570603.
Linxian, China has some of the highest rates of esophageal/gastric cardia cancer in the world. In 1983, esophageal balloon cytology screening was performed in 3 communes in northern Linxian. Of the participants, 10,066 with no evidence of cancer were followed prospectively for 7 1/2 years to evaluate the ability of the initial cytologic diagnoses to identify individuals at increased risk for developing cancer of the esophagus or gastric cardia. A total of 747 incident cases of esophageal or cardia cancer and 322 deaths due to these tumors were identified during the follow-up period and used in this analysis. The risks for esophageal or cardia cancer incidence and mortality increased in parallel with the presumed severity of the 1983 Chinese cytologic diagnoses. After adjusting for potential confounding factors, relative risks for esophageal or cardia cancer incidence, by initial cytologic diagnosis, were normal = 1.00 (reference), hyperplasia = 1.25, dysplasia 1 = 2.20, dysplasia 2 = 4.22 and near-cancer = 5.96. Our results suggest that esophageal balloon cytology, as performed and interpreted in Linxian in 1983, successfully identified individuals at increased risk for developing cancer of the esophagus or gastric cardia.
中国林县是世界上食管癌和贲门癌发病率最高的地区之一。1983年，在林县北部的3个公社开展了食管气囊细胞学筛查。在参与者中，对10,066名无癌症迹象的人进行了7年半的前瞻性随访，以评估初始细胞学诊断识别食管癌或贲门癌发病风险增加个体的能力。在随访期间共发现747例食管癌或贲门癌新发病例以及322例因这些肿瘤导致的死亡病例，并用于本分析。食管癌或贲门癌发病和死亡风险与1983年中国细胞学诊断的推测严重程度平行增加。在对潜在混杂因素进行校正后，根据初始细胞学诊断，食管癌或贲门癌发病的相对风险为：正常=1.00（参照），增生=1.25，发育异常1级=2.20，发育异常2级=4.22，癌前病变=5.96。我们的结果表明，1983年在林县开展并解读的食管气囊细胞学检查成功识别出了食管癌或贲门癌发病风险增加的个体。
