Parameter sensitivity of a model of viral epidemics simulated with Monte Carlo techniques. IV. Parametric ranges and optimization.

A model is presented of the spread of influenza into and within a nursing home. To use this model for studies involving surveillance and vaccine efficacy, it is necessary to estimate optimal ranges of a group of parameters. Attempts to do so by manual methods proved unsatisfactory. Initial use of the methods presented in the previous three papers of this series led to points that were also unsatisfactory. However, by noting which parameters were placed at the outer surface of the chosen hypervolume, it was possible to choose new ranges and to select an optimal point in hyperspace that satisfied the epidemiologically preselected characteristics.