Menotti A, Seccareccia F, Lanti M, Giampaoli S, Dima F
Laboratory of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Cardiology. 1993;82(2-3):172-80. doi: 10.1159/000175866.
A pool of two Italian rural population samples made up of 1,712 men aged 40-59 at entry was studied in 1960 and than followed up for 25 years. The multivariate analysis of the first major coronary event using the Cox model showed, in men aged 40-59, 45-64 and 50-69, the significant predictive role of age, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol and cigarette smoking, but not of body mass index, without marked differences attributable to the aging process. Changes in systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol and cigarette smoking occurring between year 0, 5 and 10 of follow-up, as defined by two different indicators, increased significantly the predictability of coronary events occurring between years 10 and 25 of follow-up when added to the model including the baseline factors. It is inferred that increases and decreases (even of relative nature) of the three major risk factors around the entry levels are associated with higher and lower levels of coronary risk in the 15 years after the changes have occurred.
1960年，对由1712名年龄在40 - 59岁之间的男性组成的两个意大利农村人口样本进行了研究，并随后进行了25年的随访。使用Cox模型对首次重大冠状动脉事件进行的多因素分析显示，在年龄为40 - 59岁、45 - 64岁和50 - 69岁的男性中，年龄、收缩压、血清胆固醇和吸烟具有显著的预测作用，而体重指数则没有，且没有因衰老过程而产生的明显差异。根据两个不同指标定义，在随访的第0年、第5年和第10年之间收缩压、血清胆固醇和吸烟的变化，当添加到包含基线因素的模型中时，显著提高了随访第10年至25年之间发生冠状动脉事件的可预测性。据推断，在进入水平周围这三个主要危险因素的增加和减少（即使是相对性质的）与变化发生后15年中冠状动脉风险的高低水平相关。
