Pekkanen J, Tervahauta M, Nissinen A, Karvonen M J
Department of Environmental Epidemiology, National Public Health Institute, Kuopio, Finland.
Cardiology. 1993;82(2-3):181-90. doi: 10.1159/000175867.
The association of baseline serum total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, smoking and body mass index with coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality was analyzed among 1,619 men aged 40-59 at baseline. Analyses were made separately for the first, second and third decade of follow-up. Serum cholesterol and smoking more than 9 cigarettes daily were strong predictors of risk of CHD death (n = 450) occurring early and late during the 30-year follow-up. After 20 years of follow-up, systolic blood pressure was no longer associated with CHD risk. In contrast, highest tertile of body mass index (over 24.7 kg/m2) was only then associated with increased CHD risk. The correlations between the baseline and the 30-year risk factor values were 0.42 for serum cholesterol (n = 444), 0.28 for systolic blood pressure (n = 444) and 0.57 for body mass index (n = 429). Our results showed large differences in the long-term predictive power of the classical coronary risk factors. The reasons for these differences are discussed.
在1619名基线年龄为40 - 59岁的男性中，分析了基线血清总胆固醇、收缩压、吸烟和体重指数与冠心病（CHD）死亡率之间的关联。对随访的第一个、第二个和第三个十年分别进行了分析。血清胆固醇和每天吸烟超过9支是30年随访期间早晚期发生冠心病死亡风险（n = 450）的强有力预测因素。随访20年后，收缩压不再与冠心病风险相关。相比之下，体重指数最高三分位数（超过24.7 kg/m²）仅在那时与冠心病风险增加相关。血清胆固醇（n = 444）的基线值与30年风险因素值之间的相关性为0.42，收缩压（n = 444）为0.28，体重指数（n = 429）为0.57。我们的结果显示，经典冠心病风险因素的长期预测能力存在很大差异。讨论了这些差异的原因。
