预测2005年荷兰糖尿病患者的数量。
Forecasting the number of diabetic patients in The Netherlands in 2005.
作者信息
Ruwaard D, Hoogenveen R T, Verkleij H, Kromhout D, Casparie A F, van der Veen E A
机构信息
National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 1993 Jul;83(7):989-95. doi: 10.2105/ajph.83.7.989.
OBJECTIVES
There is evidence from past decades that the number of diabetic patients has increased independently of changes in demography. A static model that takes into account only demographic changes is therefore unable to forecast the expected number of diabetic patients correctly.
METHODS
We developed a dynamic model in which actual incidence, prevalence, and life expectancy data are used and alternative assumptions about future trends in these parameters can be incorporated.
RESULTS
This dynamic model forecasts higher numbers of diabetic patients than the less sophisticated static model. According to the dynamic model, a 46% increase in the number of diabetic patients in The Netherlands can be expected, from 244,000 in 1990 to 355,000 in 2005 (about 2.5% annually). The static model forecasts a 22% increase.
CONCLUSIONS
Diabetes mellitus will become a more serious public health problem than can be expected from demographic changes only. In planning future health care, monitoring of trends in incidence, prevalence, remission, and mortality or life expectancy is a necessary prerequisite.
目的
过去几十年的证据表明，糖尿病患者数量的增加与人口结构变化无关。因此，仅考虑人口结构变化的静态模型无法正确预测糖尿病患者的预期数量。
方法
我们开发了一个动态模型，该模型使用实际发病率、患病率和预期寿命数据，并可纳入有关这些参数未来趋势的替代假设。
结果
与不太复杂的静态模型相比，这个动态模型预测的糖尿病患者数量更多。根据动态模型，预计荷兰糖尿病患者数量将增加46%，从1990年的24.4万增加到2005年的35.5万（每年约2.5%）。静态模型预测增加22%。
结论
糖尿病将成为一个比仅从人口结构变化所预期的更为严重的公共卫生问题。在规划未来医疗保健时，监测发病率、患病率、缓解率以及死亡率或预期寿命的趋势是必要的前提条件。
Zotero 插件