Bronchoscopy versus empirical therapy in HIV-infected patients with presumptive Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia. A decision analysis.

The outcomes of alternative strategies for the management of pulmonary complications in patients infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and with suspected Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia were compared using a decision analysis model. A decision tree was constructed using baseline probabilities derived from published data and expert opinion. The case scenario analyzed was that of a patient not currently receiving anti-Pneumocystis prophylaxis who presents with moderate pulmonary symptoms and fulfills the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) criteria for presumptive P. carinii pneumonia. Two strategies were compared: (1) early bronchoscopy with appropriate therapy based on the results, and (2) empiric treatment for P. carinii (trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole or pentamidine, and steroids) with delayed bronchoscopy in those not responding to 5 days of empiric therapy. The expected 1-month survival rate (with and without quality of life adjustment) was found to be essentially the same for the two strategies using the baseline probabilities, and the decision remained a toss-up within the clinically relevant range of published probabilities for P. carinii pneumonia in patients fulfilling the CDC criteria. Because early bronchoscopy does not offer any additional survival benefits and is associated with greater costs and disutility, empiric therapy would appear to be the superior management strategy in this scenario.