Schuldberg D
Department of Psychology, University of Montana, Missoula 59812-1041.
Psychiatry. 1993 May;56(2):137-52. doi: 10.1080/00332747.1993.11024628.
This paper discusses theoretical and measurement issues involved in attaining a differentiated picture of the distribution of outcomes in subjects selected for their elevated risk for psychosis; these outcomes include positive adaptations as well as subtle expressions of psychopathology. Many at-risk subjects either do not break down or actually "prosper" in the face of risk factors, a problem that persists even when risk groups are defined with increasing selectivity. Although this phenomenon is often referred to as the problem of "false positives" in risk research, its implications are more far-reaching than simply defining a problem of low yield in prospective studies.
本文讨论了在描绘因患精神病风险升高而被选中的受试者的结果分布差异情况时所涉及的理论和测量问题;这些结果包括积极适应以及精神病理学的微妙表现。许多有风险的受试者要么没有发病,要么实际上在面对风险因素时“表现良好”,即使在越来越有选择性地定义风险群体时,这个问题仍然存在。尽管这种现象在风险研究中常被称为“假阳性”问题,但其影响远比仅仅界定前瞻性研究中的低产出问题更为深远。