Espenshade T J, Campbell G
Demography. 1977 Feb;14(1):77-86.
This paper deals with a further analysis of the stable equivalent population for human populations. It first shows that the arithmetic difference between the size of the stable equivalent population and the actual population captures the total prospective contribution of age composition to the growth of the present population" if fertility and mortality rates are held constant at their current levels. The second part of the paper examined Fisher's reproductive value function and investigates the location of maxima in relation to alternative values of the intrinsic growth rate. One conclusion which follows from this analysis is that, contrary to what has been discovered by others in specific examples, the reproductive value function can possess a global maximum in the first one or two years of life, provided the intrinsic rate of population growth is sufficiently negative. This principle is illustrated by reference to reproductive value functions calculated from the recent experience of U.S. females.
本文对人类种群的稳定等效种群进行了进一步分析。首先表明,如果生育率和死亡率维持在当前水平不变,稳定等效种群规模与实际种群规模之间的算术差反映了年龄构成对当前种群增长的总预期贡献。本文的第二部分研究了费希尔的生殖价值函数,并探讨了其最大值相对于内在增长率替代值的位置。这一分析得出的一个结论是,与其他人在特定例子中所发现的情况相反,只要种群的内在增长率足够为负,生殖价值函数在生命的头一两年可能会出现全局最大值。通过参考根据美国女性近期经历计算出的生殖价值函数来说明这一原理。