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[喀麦隆人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)感染及获得性免疫缺陷综合征(AIDS)的短期预测]

[Short term projections of infection by the human immunodeficiency (HIV) and the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in Cameroon].

作者信息

Garcia-Calleja J M, Louis J P, Salla R, Trebucq A, Mvondo J L, Zekeng L, Migliani R, Owona R, Kaptue L

机构信息

Organisation Mondiale de la Santé, Yaoundé, Cameroun.

出版信息

Med Trop (Mars). 1993 Apr-Jun;53(2):195-9.

PMID:8412588
Abstract

As of December 1991, Cameroon has reported 827 cases of AIDS. The results from the Sentinel Surveillance System show a seroprevalence of 1.3% HIV1 among pregnant women, 2.5% in people attending STD clinic and 3.5% in tuberculosis patients. The World Health Organization projection model was used to make a short term projection of HIV infection and AIDS cases. Results show that the number estimated of HIV infected populations varies between 24 to 45,000 people by the year 1995. Results show also an estimated 8,500 cumulative AIDS cases. Even in a low prevalence country as Cameroon the impact of the HIV epidemic is important and will result in a burden for the health care system.

摘要

截至1991年12月,喀麦隆已报告827例艾滋病病例。哨兵监测系统的结果显示,孕妇中HIV-1血清阳性率为1.3%,性病门诊患者中为2.5%,结核病患者中为3.5%。采用世界卫生组织的预测模型对HIV感染和艾滋病病例进行短期预测。结果显示,到1995年,估计的HIV感染人群数量在24000至45000人之间。结果还显示,累计艾滋病病例估计为8500例。即使在像喀麦隆这样低流行率的国家,HIV疫情的影响也很严重,并将给医疗保健系统带来负担。

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