Hubble J P, Cao T, Hassanein R E, Neuberger J S, Koller W C
Department of Neurology, University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City 66160-7314.
Neurology. 1993 Sep;43(9):1693-7. doi: 10.1212/wnl.43.9.1693.
Parkinson's disease (PD) has been associated with rural living, well-water consumption, and pesticide exposure; however, the individual risk contribution of these variables has not been established. We examined social and medical histories of predominantly rural populations to determine relative risk factors for PD. Patients and controls were surveyed regarding residency, occupation, medical history, and social and dietary habits. An initial multiple logistic regression model was confounded by excessive variable colinearity. Principal factor analysis yielded three factors: rural living (including years of rural residency and ground-water use), pesticide use, and male lifestyle (male gender, head trauma, male-dominated occupations). Other variables did not load in factor analysis and were entered separately, with the three factor scores, in a second multiple logistic regression model. Significant predictors of PD emerged (in order of strength): pesticide use, family history of neurologic disease, and history of depression. The predicted probability of PD was 92.3% (odds ratio = 12.0) with all three predictors positive. Pesticide use (distinguishable from rural living) can be considered a risk factor for the development of PD, with family history of neurologic disease and history of depression serving as weaker predictors of PD.
帕金森病(PD)与农村生活、饮用井水及接触农药有关;然而,这些变量各自的风险贡献尚未明确。我们研究了以农村人口为主的社会和病史,以确定帕金森病的相关风险因素。对患者和对照组就居住情况、职业、病史以及社会和饮食习惯进行了调查。最初的多元逻辑回归模型因变量共线性过高而受到干扰。主因子分析得出三个因子:农村生活(包括农村居住年限和使用地下水情况)、农药使用以及男性生活方式(男性性别、头部外伤、男性主导职业)。其他变量未在因子分析中出现,而是与三个因子得分一起单独纳入第二个多元逻辑回归模型。帕金森病的显著预测因素出现了(按强度排序):农药使用、神经疾病家族史以及抑郁症病史。当所有这三个预测因素均为阳性时,帕金森病的预测概率为92.3%(比值比 = 12.0)。农药使用(与农村生活有别)可被视为帕金森病发病的一个风险因素,神经疾病家族史和抑郁症病史则是较弱的帕金森病预测因素。