Danford D A, Nasir A, Gumbiner C
Department of Pediatrics, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha 68198-2166.
Pediatrics. 1993 Feb;91(2):365-8.
Echocardiography available directly to primary care physicians represents an alternative strategy to pediatric cardiology consultation for childhood heart murmur evaluation. A decision analysis model compared the costs of two diagnostic strategies: (1) echocardiography first, referral to the cardiologist if appropriate; and (2) cardiologist evaluates murmur, echocardiography if appropriate. The model incorporated probability of heart disease, frequency of cardiologist-ordered echocardiography, and echocardiography results established by review of 388 records of consecutive patients evaluated for murmurs in a pediatric cardiology clinic. Echocardiography-first strategy costs were $257 greater than referral-strategy costs. Referral-strategy advantages were not highly sensitive to changes in model assumptions. Pediatric cardiology consultation is the preferred approach provided (1) consultation costs are moderate, (2) echocardiography costs are moderate to high, and (3) the rate at which the cardiologist orders echocardiography for patients with innocent murmurs is low.
基层医疗医生可直接使用超声心动图,这是评估儿童心脏杂音时替代儿科心脏病学会诊的一种策略。一个决策分析模型比较了两种诊断策略的成本:(1)先进行超声心动图检查,如有必要再转诊至心脏病专家处;(2)心脏病专家评估杂音,如有必要再进行超声心动图检查。该模型纳入了心脏病的概率、心脏病专家开具超声心动图检查的频率,以及通过回顾一家儿科心脏病诊所388例连续接受杂音评估患者的记录得出的超声心动图检查结果。先进行超声心动图检查策略的成本比转诊策略的成本高257美元。转诊策略的优势对模型假设的变化不太敏感。如果满足以下条件,儿科心脏病学会诊是首选方法:(1)会诊成本适中;(2)超声心动图检查成本适中至高;(3)心脏病专家为单纯性杂音患者开具超声心动图检查的比率较低。