Rosenberg H
Bradley University.
Psychol Bull. 1993 Jan;113(1):129-39. doi: 10.1037/0033-2909.113.1.129.
Recent research was reviewed on the following factors as predictors of controlled drinking (CD) by alcoholics and problem drinkers: severity of dependence, client attitudes and beliefs about controlled drinking and abstinence, previous treatment, pretreatment drinking style, psychological and social stability, demographic characteristics, family history of drinking, referral source, and posttreatment adjustment and drinking. No single personal characteristic has been consistently predictive, but there is convincing evidence that a lower severity of dependence and a persuasion that CD is possible are associated with CD after treatment. Prediction of CD might be improved by an approach that assesses the influence of three types of variables: enduring personal characteristics, changeable social and psychological characteristics, and transient precipitating events.
近期对以下因素的研究进行了综述，这些因素可作为酗酒者和问题饮酒者控制饮酒（CD）的预测指标：依赖程度、服务对象对控制饮酒和戒酒的态度及信念、既往治疗情况、治疗前饮酒方式、心理和社会稳定性、人口统计学特征、饮酒家族史、转诊来源以及治疗后调整和饮酒情况。没有单一的个人特征能始终如一地起到预测作用，但有令人信服的证据表明，较低的依赖程度以及认为控制饮酒是可行的信念与治疗后的控制饮酒相关。通过一种评估三类变量影响的方法，可能会提高对控制饮酒的预测：持久的个人特征、可变的社会和心理特征以及短暂的诱发事件。
