Calabrese E J, Gilbert C E
School of Public Health, University of Massachusetts, Amherst 01003.
Regul Toxicol Pharmacol. 1993 Feb;17(1):44-51. doi: 10.1006/rtph.1993.1005.
This paper assesses the fundamental assumption that multiple uncertainty factors (UFs) are independent of each other and therefore may be combined through a multiplicative scheme. It is argued that a lack of independence is seen in several cases such as that between the interindividual and less-than-lifetime UFs with respect to an age component and results in an error in double counting of UFs. The paper proposes revised UF values based on the concept of the relationship of independent and interdependent UFs. This uncertainty factor revision is then applied to a large number of contaminants for which EPA either has or has proposed MCLs or DWELs.
本文评估了这样一个基本假设，即多个不确定性因素（UFs）相互独立，因此可以通过乘法方案进行组合。有人认为，在几个案例中可以看到缺乏独立性的情况，例如个体间不确定性因素与基于年龄成分的非终身不确定性因素之间，这会导致不确定性因素的双重计算错误。本文基于独立和相互依赖的不确定性因素关系的概念提出了修正的不确定性因素值。然后，这种不确定性因素修正被应用于大量美国环境保护局（EPA）已经或提议制定了最大污染物浓度（MCLs）或饮用水等效水平（DWELs）的污染物。
