Lindtjørn B, Alemu T, Bjorvatn B
Centre for International Health, University of Bergen, Norway.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 1993 Jan-Feb;87(1):24-8. doi: 10.1016/0035-9203(93)90407-h.
To assess the population dynamics of drought-prone communities, we investigated 605 households in the pastoralist Boran community of Dubluk and in the agricultural community of Elka, both located in southern Ethiopia. The age and sex composition of the population as well as records of births, deaths and patterns of migration were observed for 2 consecutive years. Repeated surveys of the same households revealed much higher rates for deaths and births than did cross-sectional surveys with a one-year recall period. Indirect mortality estimates showed that the under 5 years mortality rates (per 1000 births) were 135 in Dubluk and 219 in Elka. Highest crude death rates were observed in Elka during periods of meningitis and malaria epidemics. During the period of observation, death rates fluctuated to a greater extent than birth rates. Both communities had very high rates of natural increase: in Dubluk 39.0/1000 and in Elka 37.1/1000. In Dubluk, this rate was far higher than any previously recorded and may have indicated that fertility regulating mechanisms, traditionally inherent in the pastoralist social organization, had become weaker as part of cultural changes. Dubluk represented a semi-nomadic society with a moderately high mobility pattern. Peak periods of migration coincided with times of food scarcity in Elka.
为评估易受干旱影响社区的人口动态，我们对位于埃塞俄比亚南部的杜布鲁克的游牧博拉恩社区和埃尔卡的农业社区的605户家庭进行了调查。连续两年观察了人口的年龄和性别构成以及出生、死亡记录和移民模式。对同一家庭的重复调查显示，与回顾期为一年的横断面调查相比，死亡和出生率要高得多。间接死亡率估计显示，杜布鲁克5岁以下儿童死亡率（每1000例出生）为135，埃尔卡为219。在脑膜炎和疟疾流行期间，埃尔卡的粗死亡率最高。在观察期内，死亡率的波动幅度大于出生率。两个社区的自然增长率都非常高：杜布鲁克为39.0/1000，埃尔卡为37.1/1000。在杜布鲁克，这一比率远高于此前记录的任何比率，可能表明，作为文化变迁的一部分，游牧社会组织传统上固有的生育调节机制已经减弱。杜布鲁克代表了一个半游牧社会，具有中等偏高的流动模式。移民高峰期与埃尔卡的食物短缺时期相吻合。
