Brunham R C, Cheang M, McMaster J, Garnett G, Anderson R
Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada.
Sex Transm Dis. 1993 May-Jun;20(3):168-73. doi: 10.1097/00007435-199305000-00010.
In sub-Saharan Africa, Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Chlamydia trachomatis are common infections. These pathogens are also the major causes of post-salpingitis tubal infertility, and infertility is a frequent problem in this region. A mathematical model, recently devised to estimate the effect of gonococcal infection on population growth, was used to estimate the potential effect of chlamydial infection on population growth. The model predictions for chlamydial infection were compared with those previously reported for gonococcal infection. The model predicts that both infections may be exerting severe effects on population growth at realistic prevalence rates of infection. The model also predicts that N. gonorrhoeae produces a steeper reduction in population growth than does C. trachomatis because its transmission dynamics result in a higher force of infection (incidence rate) at any given prevalence of infection. Large scale changes in the epidemiology of these infections can be expected to occur in sub-Saharan Africa because of improved sexually transmitted disease (STD) diagnosis and treatment services as a component of AIDS prevention. Changes in the epidemiology of gonococcal and chlamydial infection are predicted to result in accelerated population growth unless STD control programs are linked to effective contraception programs.
在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，淋病奈瑟菌和沙眼衣原体感染较为常见。这些病原体也是输卵管炎后输卵管性不孕的主要原因，而不孕在该地区是一个常见问题。最近设计的一个用于估计淋球菌感染对人口增长影响的数学模型，被用来估计衣原体感染对人口增长的潜在影响。将衣原体感染的模型预测结果与先前报道的淋球菌感染的预测结果进行了比较。该模型预测，在实际感染率下，这两种感染可能都对人口增长产生严重影响。该模型还预测，淋病奈瑟菌导致的人口增长下降比沙眼衣原体更显著，因为在任何给定的感染率下，其传播动态导致更高的感染强度（发病率）。由于作为艾滋病预防一部分的性传播疾病（STD）诊断和治疗服务得到改善，预计撒哈拉以南非洲地区这些感染的流行病学将发生大规模变化。除非STD控制项目与有效的避孕项目相结合，否则淋病和衣原体感染流行病学的变化预计将导致人口加速增长。
