Predictive factors for early mortality after percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy.

BACKGROUND

Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) is a safe access procedure for enteral nutrition. The purpose of this investigation is to identify predictive factors for early mortality after PEG.

METHODS

A retrospective review of the hospital records of 416 patients undergoing PEG from June 1, 1989, through December 31, 1991, was conducted. Patient demographics, admitting diagnosis, indication for PEG, risk factors for early mortality, and cause and date of death were reviewed. Logistic regression analysis was used to develop a model to predict early mortality after PEG. The follow-up period ranged from 1 to 30 months.

RESULTS

The overall mortality rate in this review was 227 of 416 patients (54.6%). The 7- and 30-day case fatality rates were 39 of 416 (9.4%) and 97 of 416 (23.3%), respectively. Logistic regression analysis showed that urinary tract infection (odds ratio (OR) = 3.05; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.45-6.43) and previous aspiration (OR = 6.86; 95% CI = 3.27-14.4) were predictive factors for death at 1 week after PEG. Patients who had both risk factors had a 48.4% probability of dying within 7 days after PEG insertion, whereas those who had no risk factors had a 4.3% probability of death. Urinary tract infection (OR = 2.00; 95% CI = 1.17-3.41), previous aspiration (OR = 3.62; 95% CI = 2.00-6.55), and age greater than 75 years (OR = 2.49; 95% CI = 1.47-4.21) were predictive factors for death at 1 month after PEG. Patients who had all three risk factors had a 67.1% probability of death at 1 month while those who had no risk factors had a 10% probability of death.

CONCLUSIONS

A subgroup of patients exists that has a very high mortality rate after PEG. Less invasive ways of nutritionally supporting these high-risk patients should be evaluated.