Port F K
University of Michigan School of Medicine, Ann Arbor, USA.
Kidney Int Suppl. 1995 Aug;50:S3-6.
The incidence rate per million population of treated end-stage renal disease (ESRD) has been increasing at similar rates in most countries that record counts of new ESRD patients per year. Data from the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) suggest an exponential growth for both incidence rates and prevalence rates. Doubling of the number of new patients per year occurred over a recent 8.5 year period, and this interval was even shorter for older patients, Asians, Native Americans and for patients with diabetes or hypertension as cause of ESRD. Reasons for this growth in incidence include greater acceptance to therapy of older and sicker patients, reduced mortality from other conditions and possibly more kidney disease. A recent reduction in mortality rates for ESRD patients in the US has additionally influenced the growth in prevalence. In view of these striking recent trends a prognosis for the next decade is discussed. As major possible solutions prevention efforts for renal disease and for the progression of renal disease are proposed, as are means to enhance renal organ donation.
在大多数每年记录新增终末期肾病（ESRD）患者数量的国家中，每百万人口中接受治疗的ESRD发病率一直以相似的速度增长。美国肾脏数据系统（USRDS）的数据表明，发病率和患病率均呈指数增长。在最近的8.5年期间，每年新增患者数量翻了一番，而对于老年患者、亚洲人、美洲原住民以及因ESRD导致的糖尿病或高血压患者，这一间隔甚至更短。发病率增长的原因包括对老年和病情较重患者治疗的接受度提高、其他疾病死亡率降低以及可能更多的肾脏疾病。美国ESRD患者死亡率最近的下降也影响了患病率的增长。鉴于这些近期显著的趋势，本文讨论了未来十年的预后情况。作为主要的可能解决方案，提出了预防肾病和肾病进展的措施，以及增加肾脏器官捐赠的方法。
