Hogan P F, Dobson A, Haynie B, DeLisa J A, Gans B, Grabois M, LaBan M M, Melvin J L, Walsh N E
Lewin-VHI, Inc., Fairfax, VA, USA.
Arch Phys Med Rehabil. 1996 Jan;77(1):95-9. doi: 10.1016/s0003-9993(96)90228-2.
Analysis, results, and implications of a supply and demand workforce model for physical medicine and rehabilitation. Explicit issues addressed include: (1) the supply implications of maintaining current (1994-1995) output of physiatrists from residency programs; (2) the implications of continued growth in managed care on the demand for the services of physiatrists; (3) likely future supply and demand conditions; and (4) strategies to adapt to future conditions.
A workforce model of the supply and demand for physiatrists was developed. Parameters of the model are estimated using econometric models and by applying the judgments of a consensus panel. The model evaluated several different scenarios regarding managed care growth, competition from other providers and other factors.
Based on the analysis, physiatrists will continue to be in excess demand through the year 2000. More aggressive growth in managed care can affect this result.
Based on an overall assessment of supply and demand conditions, and under the assumption that the supply of new entrants each year remains in the range of 1994-1995 levels, demand for physiatrists will continue to exceed supply, on average, through the year 2000. Excess supply has, and will, emerge in selected geographic areas. If the profession is successful in informing the market regarding the advantages of physiatry, the profession can continue to grow without experiencing excess supply, in the aggregate, for the foreseeable future.
分析物理医学与康复领域劳动力供需模型的结果及其影响。所探讨的具体问题包括：（1）维持当前（1994 - 1995年）住院医师培训项目中物理治疗师产出量的供应影响；（2）管理式医疗持续增长对物理治疗师服务需求的影响；（3）未来可能的供需状况；以及（4）适应未来状况的策略。
构建了物理治疗师劳动力供需模型。该模型的参数通过计量经济学模型并运用共识小组的判断来估计。该模型评估了有关管理式医疗增长、来自其他提供者的竞争及其他因素的几种不同情景。
基于分析，到2000年物理治疗师仍将持续供不应求。管理式医疗更激进的增长会影响这一结果。
基于对供需状况的总体评估，并假设每年新进入者的供应保持在1994 - 1995年的水平范围内，到2000年，物理治疗师的需求平均仍将继续超过供应。在某些特定地理区域会出现供应过剩，且已经出现并将继续出现。如果该行业能够成功地向市场宣传物理治疗的优势，那么在可预见的未来，该行业总体上可以持续增长而不会出现供应过剩的情况。
