Balboul Sarah, Gronbeck Christian, Feng Hao
School of Medicine, New York Medical College, Valhalla, NY, USA.
Department of Dermatology, University of Connecticut Health Center, University of Connecticut School of Medicine, 21 South Rd, 2nd Floor, Farmington, CT, 06032, USA.
Arch Dermatol Res. 2024 May 22;316(5):192. doi: 10.1007/s00403-024-02924-2.
There has been a growing imbalance between supply of dermatologists and demand for dermatologic care. To best address physician shortages, it is important to delineate supply and demand patterns in the dermatologic workforce. The goal of this study was to explore dermatology supply and demand over time.
We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of workforce supply and demand projections for dermatologists from 2021 to 2036 using data from the Health Workforce Simulation Model from the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis. Estimates for total workforce supply and demand were summarized in aggregate and stratified by rurality. Scenarios with status quo demand and improved access were considered.
Projected total supply showed a 12.45% increase by 2036. Total demand increased 12.70% by 2036 in the status quo scenario. In the improved access scenario, total supply was inadequate for total demand in any year, lagging by 28% in 2036. Metropolitan areas demonstrated a relative supply surplus up to 2036; nonmetropolitan areas had at least a 157% excess in demand throughout the study period. In 2021 adequacy was 108% and 39% adequacy for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, respectively; these differences were projected to continue through 2036.
The findings suggest that the dermatology physician workforce is inadequate to meet the demand for dermatologic services in nonmetropolitan areas. Furthermore, improved access to dermatologic care would bolster demand and especially exacerbate workforce inadequacy in nonmetropolitan areas. Continued efforts are needed to address health inequities and ensure access to quality dermatologic care for all.
皮肤科医生的供应与皮肤科护理需求之间的不平衡日益加剧。为了最好地解决医生短缺问题，明确皮肤科劳动力的供需模式很重要。本研究的目的是探讨皮肤科随时间的供应和需求情况。
我们使用国家卫生人力分析中心的卫生人力模拟模型的数据，对2021年至2036年皮肤科医生的劳动力供需预测进行了横断面分析。对劳动力总供应和需求的估计进行了汇总，并按农村地区进行了分层。考虑了需求维持现状和改善就医机会的情景。
预计到2036年，总供应量将增长12.45%。在现状情景下，到2036年总需求增长12.70%。在改善就医机会的情景下，任何一年的总供应量都不足以满足总需求，2036年短缺28%。大城市地区到2036年显示出相对供应过剩；在整个研究期间，非大城市地区的需求至少高出157%。2021年，大城市和非大城市地区的充足率分别为108%和39%；预计这些差异将持续到2036年。
研究结果表明，皮肤科医生劳动力不足以满足非大城市地区对皮肤科服务的需求。此外，改善皮肤科护理的可及性将增加需求，尤其会加剧非大城市地区劳动力的不足。需要持续努力解决健康不平等问题，确保所有人都能获得高质量的皮肤科护理。
