Oster G, Thompson D
Policy Analysis Inc., Brookline, MA 02146, USA.
J Am Diet Assoc. 1996 Feb;96(2):127-31. doi: 10.1016/S0002-8223(96)00040-5.
To estimate the effects of reducing dietary saturated fat intake on the incidence and economic costs of coronary heart disease (CHD) in the United States.
Modeling techniques and data from secondary sources, including the Framingham Heart Study and the second and third National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys, were used to estimate the effects on CHD incidence and associated costs of reducing dietary saturated fat intake as a percent of total energy by one to three percentage points.
Persons aged 35 to 69 years who have total cholesterol levels of 5.17 mmol/L or higher and are currently free of CHD.
Approximately 3 million first-time coronary events are estimated to occur over a 10-year period among persons with total cholesterol levels exceeding 5.17 mmol/L. Reducing saturated fat intake by one to three percentage points would reduce CHD incidence by 32,000 to 99,700 events and yield combined savings in medical expenditures and lost earnings ranging from $4.1 to $12.7 billion over 10 years (estimates in 1993 US dollars).
Population-based interventions to encourage Americans to reduce dietary intake of saturated fat may prevent tens of thousands of cases of CHD and save billions of dollars in related costs.
评估降低膳食中饱和脂肪摄入量对美国冠心病（CHD）发病率及经济成本的影响。
运用建模技术及来自二手资料的数据，包括弗明汉心脏研究以及第二次和第三次全国健康与营养检查调查，以评估将膳食中饱和脂肪摄入量占总能量的百分比降低1至3个百分点对冠心病发病率及相关成本的影响。
年龄在35至69岁之间、总胆固醇水平达到或超过5.17 mmol/L且目前无冠心病的人群。
据估计，在总胆固醇水平超过5.17 mmol/L的人群中，10年内约有300万首次冠心病事件发生。将饱和脂肪摄入量降低1至3个百分点将使冠心病发病率降低32,000至99,700例，并在10年内使医疗支出和收入损失合计节省41亿至127亿美元（按1993年美元计算）。
以人群为基础的干预措施，鼓励美国人减少膳食中饱和脂肪的摄入量，可能预防数以万计的冠心病病例，并节省数十亿美元的相关成本。
