Shonick W, Klein B W
Med Care. 1977 May;15(5):419-29. doi: 10.1097/00005650-197705000-00008.
A method is presented for adjusting the scheduling of appointments in ambulatory health care centers to reduce the deleterious effects of broken appointments. The essence of the methodology calls for scheduling and "expected number" of patients for a given clinic session. This "expected number" is calculated from estimated probabilities of appointment breaking, conditioned on patient characteristics which are deemed to be related to appointment-breaking rates, and on which number appointment within a specified time period is being made for the patient. The two ill effects of appointment breaking that are considered here are the diminution of efficiency of operation and interference with continuity of patient care. Ways of using this methodology to ameliorate each of these effects are outlined, with one of these way serving to alleviate both effects. This method is meant to be of quite general applicability, although its development was motivated by the problems of a localized particular situation.
本文提出了一种调整门诊医疗中心预约安排的方法，以减少爽约带来的有害影响。该方法的核心是为特定的门诊时段安排“预期患者数量”。这个“预期患者数量”是根据预约爽约的估计概率计算得出的，该概率取决于被认为与爽约率相关的患者特征，以及在特定时间段内为该患者安排的预约数量。本文考虑的爽约带来的两个不良影响是运营效率的降低和对患者护理连续性的干扰。文中概述了使用这种方法改善每种影响的方式，其中一种方式有助于减轻这两种影响。尽管该方法的开发是由局部特定情况的问题推动的，但它旨在具有相当广泛的适用性。
